Release of Nnamdi Kanu before May 29: A likely strategic master stroke to expect
3 min read
By Emeka Ugwuonye
Discernment is the ability to read the tea leaves or the handwriting on the wall, and see things before they happen. I have been looking at things and events and moods and calculations in high places in Nigeria. It is, indeed, a highly charged period. And connecting the dots, I have reasons to believe that the president-elect, working with President Buhari, will release Nnamdi Kanu from detention few days before the inauguration set for 29th May, 2023.
Releasing the IPOB leader before inauguration seems to be one of the top strategic options open to the President-elect for dousing tension and earning himself some goodwill he critically needs. That may be necessary to achieve the following objectives:
1. Tinubu is faced with an unprecedent levels of objection to his legitimacy. No other President-elect in Nigerian history has faced as much intense hatred and opposition to his swearing in. The option of using force to quell the agitation and opposition to his assumption of office is not a wise one. Tinubu is a smart man. He may seek a more strategic and more efficient option such as sudden release of Nnamdi Kanu.
Clearly, releasing Nnamdi Kanu will hugely improve his perception in the eyes of the Igbos and lessen the opposition to his office. In fact, if Nnamdi Kanu is released and it is seen that Tinubu was behind it, that will dramatically improve Tinubu’s support and acceptance in Igboland. His acceptability in Igboland will shoot through the roof.
2. Second, such a move will undercut Peter Obi and the Obident movement. You must realize that the Obident movement was propelled by amalgamation of all groups who had gotten tired of the state of Nigeria. Ninety percent of IPOB members and supporters are Obidents. Just as the emergence of Peter Obi in Labour party took the steam off PDP in the South East, releasing Nnamdi Kanu by Tinubu’s effort will take significant steam off the Obident movement in the places where it is the strongest, ie, the South East.
I believe that some peole are already aware of this possibility. If you listened to Chief Emmanuel Iwuanyawu, the new leader of Ohaneze, he recently stated that he was sure that Nnamdi Kanu would be released unconditionally before May 29, 2023. Initially, I doubt that. I had wondered the implications of releasing Nnamdi Kanu unconditionally in May. But on further analysis, I could see that Iwuanyawu might have had an insider information, even though he chose to take personal credit for the release of Nnamdi Kanu.
Well, it is not possible to release him unconditionally, but the official language would say it was unconditional. However, even before he is out, there will be an understanding that he will disband IPOB and the ESN and would refrain from his agitation for Biafra. And he will agree to all that because he really doesn’t have an option. He has been in detention for so long, he needs to come out and breath fresh air again.
How does Tinubu intend to deal with the opposition from the Arewa group which has rejected any idea of releasing Nnamdi Kanu unconditionally? It is simple. Tinubu has sufficient hands in the Northern part of Nigeria that he could deploy to quell or pacify the Arewa youths.
DISCLAIMER:
This is purely my personal reading of the cloud. It does not necesarily reflect my wish. Also, it was not revealed to me by anyone.
